OFCCP Weekly Review: October 2021 # 2 | Association of Direct Employers

Friday October 8, 2021: Employment situation in September – Another disappointing month of job creation as more Americans drop out to expand the list of long-term unemployed

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payroll employment increased by 194,000 jobs in September. Economists had estimated 500,000 or more. Although the August figures have adjusted upwards, the significant drop in July is still trending (see 2nd table below).

These data point to bad news now showing a rapid slowdown in the US economy that has already forced economists to dramatically downgrade US real gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth in 2021 from 6, 7% to 5.2%. Economists attribute the slowdown in the economy to two main factors: (1) supply chain problems forcing many manufacturers to lay off workers for lack of parts to complete their manufacturing assemblies, and (2) a never-before-seen new development. seen in the United States with millions of employees simply quitting their jobs in recent months to stop working, or stayed home unemployed and not responding to the millions of available help ads that frustrated employers post every month in greater numbers. (DE’s daily job listings now exceed the number of available jobs DE listed before the pandemic. While this is in part due to the continued growth in the number of DE member companies, the adjustment for that growth still shows more jobs available today than before March 2020).

Besides the relatively paltry number of new jobs created in September, the drop in the unemployment rate from 5.2% to 4.8% is also counterintuitively bad news. This is because for the unemployment percentage to decrease as the number of unemployed people increase, it means that more people fall off the unemployment lists when they move to a category that the Bureau of Labor Statistics calls “The Long Unemployed.” duration ”(“ LTU ”).

CLDs are workers who have been unemployed for a year or more and have given up looking for work. It’s about numbers and how you count. Once an unemployed person has exhausted their state unemployment benefits (usually after 13 weeks, or after 26 weeks in the case of an economic “emergency” as we are currently experiencing, although several states offer shorter and shorter coverages. some offer longer covers) and left in search of a job, they “fall” on the unemployment lists, even if they remain unemployed because the state employment agencies do not. are more able to monitor their progress and find out if they have remained unemployed or if they may have found a job. Thus, the percentages of long-term unemployed increase as LTUs lose their benefits, drop unemployment lists and lose contact with state employment offices. LTUs are unemployed but you cannot see or count them.

Employment is increasing occurred in recreation and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, transportation and warehousing.

Employment is declining occurred in public education.

Non-agricultural salaried employment “New jobs added”

The monthly revisions are the result of additional reports from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and the recalculation of seasonal factors.

Month Original report Adjusted
September 2021 194,000 To be determined
August 2021 235,000 366,000
July 2021 943,000 1,091,000

Quote US Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh.


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